USD

During Wednesday's meeting, the US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, fell by 1% as the market evaluated the release of high-level economic data, including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve. With the support of a modest rebound in US yields, the dollar shed its bearish sentiment for the week. Earlier, US President-elect Donald Trump proposed imposing tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union. The Dollar Index rose to a two-day high, returning below the 107.00 level on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the market absorbed the threats of tariffs on its three biggest trading partners by President-elect Donald Trump and sought clues in the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. With strong economic data and a less dovish Fed stance, the Dollar Index showed bullish tendencies. Despite recent pullbacks due to profit-taking and geopolitical uncertainties, the upward trend remains intact. Technical indicators suggest consolidation might occur as overbought conditions ease.

Observing recent technical trends, the Dollar Index is consolidating after a strong rebound from a two-year high of 108.07, currently hovering just below 107.00, near the upper limit of its recent trading range. Technical indicators on the daily chart, such as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), indicate a potential pullback, but the overall bullish momentum remains strong. The Dollar Index may encounter resistance at 107.56 (Tuesday's high), with a breakout extending the uptrend to 108.00 (a round number) and 108.07 (last Friday's high). On the other hand, the Dollar Index finds support near 106.00 (a psychological level), and 105.44 (25-day moving average), followed by 105.00 (a psychological level).

Today, consider shorting the Dollar Index near 106.18, with a stop loss at 106.28, and targets at 105.75 and 105.55.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

On Wednesday, oil prices rose, nearing a 1% increase for the day. This increase occurred as representatives from OPEC+ (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) confirmed negotiations to further delay the normalization of their production plans. Bloomberg reported that the delay could last for several months, with rumors even suggesting a postponement until the second quarter of 2025. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude traded around $68.70, rising amidst uncertainty in the US oil sector and unexpected decreases in crude inventories. US President-elect Donald Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on all products entering the US from Mexico and Canada. If Trump fulfills this new promise, the US oil industry could face an unpredictable future. A recent reduction in US crude inventories might support oil prices. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report, US crude inventories decreased by 5.935 million barrels for the week ending November 22. Investors are closely monitoring geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. According to the Associated Press, on Tuesday, Israel approved a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, which will end nearly 14 months of fighting related to the war in Gaza. Easing geopolitical risks could pressure WTI prices downward.

WTI prices are at the lower end of a fluctuating range, indicating market caution amid ongoing supply and demand adjustments and concerns over potential geopolitical headlines driving excessive sell-offs. Technically, US crude on the daily chart continues to trend downward with moving averages turning down. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 45-46, indicating persistent negative sentiment. The KDJ indicator shows a death cross pattern, suggesting that this round of oil price rebounds may be ending, so testing the support near the week's starting low of $67.94 is possible. A break below this could reach the lowest point of 2024 to date at $66.57 (October 29 low). On the upside, the first resistance level to consider is the psychological mark of $70.00, followed by $71.38 (the high on November 22), and $72.52 (the 100-day simple moving average).

Today, consider going long on crude oil near $68.45, with a stop loss at $68.30, and targets at $69.90 and $70.10.

XAUUSD

Gold prices remain elevated near $2,635 per ounce as U.S. inflation data for October matched preliminary estimates, and U.S. Treasury yields performed poorly across the curve. During Wednesday's Asian session, gold prices remained strong, poised to extend the rebound from the six-day low of $2,605 seen earlier. Heading into Thanksgiving, traders await a batch of significant U.S. economic data, which will help shape market expectations for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influencing the dollar and the price of non-interest-bearing gold. Gold attracted some follow-through buying in early European trading on Wednesday, aiming to reach new highs based on the overnight recovery from around $2,600 or the week's low. The ongoing geopolitical risks from the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with concerns over President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans, have driven some safe-haven funds into the gold market for the second consecutive day.

From a technical perspective, gold prices rebounded strongly from the recent low of $2,605 on Tuesday, and subsequent strength has favored bullish traders. However, oscillators on the daily chart have yet to confirm a bullish bias, suggesting that upward momentum is more likely to encounter stubborn resistance near the 20-day moving average at $2,655.00. If broken, gold prices could climb further to the $2,663.40 area (50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $2,790.00 to $2,536.80), and then to barriers at $2,677-2,678, with the next target being the $2,700 round figure. On the other hand, the 75-day moving average at $2,618 might provide some support before the significant $2,600 level. If bears successfully break below $2,600 and the $2,696.50 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), it could turn bearish again, possibly falling near the 100-day moving average at $2,568.80.

Today, consider going long on gold near $2,630.00, with a stop loss at $2,625, and targets at $2,650.00 and $2,655.00.

AUDUSD

The Australian Dollar managed to recover from a sharp decline on Tuesday, posting a decent recovery amid a broad pullback in the U.S. dollar to retest the 0.6500 level. The Aussie halted its three-day losing streak on Wednesday, supported by a dovish U.S. dollar influenced by optimistic sentiment in the bond market. Additionally, a hawkish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia on future rate decisions supported the Aussie. Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October rose by 2.1% year-over-year, unchanged from the previous month, but below the market expectation of 2.3%. This marks the lowest inflation rate since July 2021 and remains within the central bank's target range of 2-3% for the third consecutive month. Market sentiment took a hit after U.S. President-elect Trump announced a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods entering the U.S., potentially limiting the upside for AUD/USD. Given that China and Australia are close trading partners, any changes in the Chinese economy could impact the Australian market.

From the daily chart, midweek AUD/USD hovered around 0.6480, with technical analysis indicating strengthened bearish momentum in the short term. The pair remains confined within a downward channel, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 40, indicating continued negative sentiment. In terms of support, AUD/USD may test the November 14 low between 0.6435 - 0.6440, recorded as a four-month low on November 26. If it breaks below this level, AUD/USD could approach the round number of 0.6400, followed by the yearly low of 0.6348 reached on August 5. Resistance is found at the 9-day moving average of 0.6494 and the psychological level of 0.6500. Further resistance is at the 20-day moving average of 0.6535 and the 0.6550 level (Monday's high). A decisive break above these levels could support the pair testing the 0.6600 area.

Today, consider going long on the Aussie Dollar near 0.6480, with a stop loss at 0.6465 and targets at 0.654

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD maintains a positive orientation in the 1.2660 range as the dollar experienced a notable pullback following the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data. During early European trading on Wednesday, GBP/USD strengthened around the 1.2620 area. Despite U.S. President-elect Trump announcing further tariff measures, the pound remained consolidated. Earlier on Tuesday, Trump pledged tariffs on all products entering the U.S. from Canada, Mexico, and China, which had elevated the USD against the GBP the previous trading day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies, is trading near a one-week low below 107.00. However, the dollar's potential downside seems limited amid less dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Additionally, Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli stated on Tuesday that she needed to see more evidence of easing price pressures before supporting another rate cut. Reduced bets on a BoE rate cut next month have temporarily provided some support for the pound.

The rebound of GBP/USD above 1.2650 remains positive, showing high-level fluctuations above this mark, as the pair found some breathing room after falling back below the 1.3000 level earlier in November. Later last week, GBP/USD fell to a six-month low of 1.2487, marking a 7% drop from its September peak of 1.3434. In the short term, GBP bulls hoping to end the current USD rally will seek intraday bids to return to the 200-day moving average near 1.2840 and the 34-day average at 1.2857, while long-term bears will look for opportunities to regain momentum and pull GBP back to the psychological mark of 1.2600, and potentially to 1.2550 or even the 2024 low of 1.2300.

For today, it is suggested to go long on GBP at just below 1.2660, with a stop loss at 1.2645 and targets at 1.2710 and 1.2720.

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair fell by approximately 1%, plunging to around 150.56 during the Wednesday European/American trading session. This decline was driven by expectations that President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bescent, would maintain fiscal discipline and political stability while focusing on Trump's economic agenda, leading to a broad market adjustment and asset sell-off. After Trump's tariff threats, the Japanese yen continued to attract some safe-haven capital inflows. Furthermore, following the nomination of Scott Bescent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, who is expected to limit budget deficits, U.S. Treasury yields have recently seen a pullback, providing additional support for the low-yielding yen. Coupled with a downtrend in the dollar, this dragged USD/JPY to a near five-week low of 150.56 on Wednesday. Nonetheless, uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike in December might hinder bullish bets on the yen. On the other hand, the dollar could gain support from bets on the Federal Reserve slowing its rate cuts, which might provide some backing for USD/JPY ahead of key U.S. macroeconomic data releases later today.

From a technical standpoint, a close below the 10-period moving average on the 4-hour chart (153.65) supports a bearish outlook. Additionally, oscillators on the daily chart have just begun to gain negative traction, supporting the prospect of further weakening in USD/JPY. Consequently, a subsequent weakening toward the critical 200-day moving average (currently near 152.00) is likely. A breach below the 200-day moving average could see the pair target the November oscillation lows near 151.30-151.25. Further downside could reach the psychological level of 150.00. Conversely, the 152.00 whole number and the 200-day moving average might now act as short-term obstacles before the 153.25-153.30 area. If there is a sustained strengthening and a breakout above the latter, it could trigger a short-covering rally, potentially pushing USD/JPY back above the 154.00 psychological barrier. The upward trajectory could further extend toward the intermediate level near 154.60.

For today, it is suggested to go short on USD at just below 151.30, with a stop loss at 151.

EURUSD

The strong sell-off in the dollar prompted EUR/USD to set aside the previous day's retracement and refocus on the key 1.0600 level, ahead of crucial data from the Eurozone later in the week. Trading in Asian hours on Wednesday hovered around 1.0500. Following President-elect Trump's decision to nominate Scott Bescent, a Wall Street veteran and fiscally conservative fund manager, as the U.S. Treasury Secretary, bond markets reacted optimistically, putting pressure on the dollar. During the mid-week European/American session, EUR/USD oscillated around the 1.0550 level, maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish oscillation. Economic data throughout the week has been light, and the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday will likely dampen market momentum towards the end of the week. Friday will also see limited trading hours in the U.S. market, further reducing the likelihood of significant market movements this week. According to the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve, Fed members continue to exercise caution regarding the pace of future rate cuts.

Earlier this week, EUR/USD strengthened due to dollar weakness, retesting the 1.0600 level. However, buying interest in EUR/USD has yet to make a significant breakthrough past key technical barriers, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart rebounded after conditions turned oversold (last reported at 42.30). However, this oscillator has cooled off, which might allow bears to regain control. EUR/USD is likely to continue oscillating near the technical resistance at the 1.0600 whole number and 1.0610 (the high from November 20). The next level of resistance to watch is at 1.0641 (20-day moving average) and 1.0724 (34-day moving average). On the downside, the first level of support is at 1.0500 (whole number), followed by 1.0475 (Wednesday's low).

For today, it is recommended to go long on the euro near 1.0550, with a stop loss at 1.0535, and targets at 1.0595 and 1.0610.

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